投机过度与金融危机

1. A compelling growth story: prospective rates of growth may be exaggerated. 经济增长的速度与幅度被夸大
2. A blind faith in the competence of the authorities 盲目相信权威机构
3. Investment boom: capital is generally misspent (investing at a time of overcapacity); efficiency of investment as measured by incremental GDP growth for every unit of investment is decreasing 投资额增长，但非有效投资与有效资源分配
4. A surge in corruption and rising level of fraud 钱多导致贪污腐败增加
5. Easy money: strong growth in the money supply, low interest rates -> low cost -> malinvestment 低利息使投资者追逐高回报、高风险的投资
6. Fixed currency regimes, i.e. fixed exchange rate -> capital inflow (e.g.foreign direct investment) 固定外汇利率的货币体系导致低利息和大量资本涌入
7. Rampant credit growth 大量放贷
8. Moral hazard: belief that the authorities won't let bad things happen to the financial system 道德风险
9. Financial structures become precarious - Ponzi finance(asset price bubble:loans could not be paid off from underlying cash flows. in order to be validated, they needed further asset price appreciation) 金融结构岌岌可危，承受不了小事件的发生
10. speculative euphoria: rapidly rising property prices 房地产价格陡升

7 - most important leading indicator of financial instability
9 - second most reliable crisis indicator
5,6 - warning signs
10 - severe and long-lasting economic downturns
3 - misallocation of capital
1,2 - classic manias
8,4 - exacerbation

China's Red Flags by Edward Chancellor, GMO white paper, March 2010